2024 Democratic Primary Polling
Joe Biden is running for re-election, and we’re tracking the latest polling for the 2024 Democratic Primary. Our polling average includes state and national polls. It gives more weight to recent polls, pollsters with strong track records, and polls with large sample sizes.
Many pollsters have been polling an unlikely scenario - where everyone - from Michelle Obama to Kamala Harris, decides to run against Joe Biden. We've created three separate categories for polls so our polling average isn’t skewed by the more wild scenarios.
The Actual Field - Tracks Polling with the Actual 2024 Field
Everyone Runs - Tracks polls including candidates that are highly unlikely to run
No Biden - Tracks a hypothetical field where Biden didn't run.
RacetotheWH launched in 2020 and was one of the most accurate forecasters in the nation in its first year. In 2022, we were one of the only forecasters to even attempt to predict Senate primaries - and correctly called the winner every single time, in 20 total races.
The polling average, more weight is given to polls:
With larger sample size
That are more recent
From pollsters with a good track record.
Once the field becomes clearer, the polling average will start narrowing the field to candidates that are running, or that still could launch a bid. We'll also launch several new interactive features after the midterm elections. Keep an eye out for a demographic polling average showing where major potential contenders, like Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, and Pete Buttigieg, get the most support.
Most importantly, RacetotheWH will feature primary predictions long before the first election. We've built an excellent track record in calling Senate and Governor primaries in 2022, successfully predicting the winner over 95% of the time.