The 2026 Senate Forecast

Designed by Logan Phillips

The RacetotheWH Senate Forecast predicts the outcome of every Senate race in 2026 using a data-driven model that factors in the latest polling, historic trends, candidate quality, and fundraising. Every day, we simulate the election 50,000 times to get the best projection we can on how likely each party is to win the majority. We’ve correctly predicted the Senate majority in the last three election cycles, and came just one seat shy in 2022 of perfectly predicting the # of seats the parties would win in both Senate and the House - which was closer than any election forecaster that cycle.

Background on the 2026 Senate Race

After a successful 2024 election cycle, Republicans seized the Senate majority, securing a 53–47 advantage. Democrats will be on the hunt to expand their ranks and will most likely be boosted by favorable national headwinds, as midterms usually provide fertile ground for the party out of the White House. However, outright securing a majority will be a challenge; Democrats will need to flip four seats to take a 51–49 seat majority (a 50-50 tie would be broken by Vice President JD Vance). If Democrats can flip two more seats, it would be a successful cycle, and it would give them an excellent shot at taking the Senate in 2028, when the GOP will be defending North Carolina and Wisconsin.
The Map
In 2026, Democrats’ best two offensive opportunities are in Maine and North Carolina. They’ll also be competitive in Ohio now that Senator Sherrod Brown decided to run against appointed Senator and form Lieutenant Governor Jon Husted for the seat. The same is true in Alaska, now that Congresswoman Mary Peltola, who won the state in 2022, is running for the Senate. They are also hoping Iowa, and Texas could be competitive if 2026 is a big blue wave election.
Republicans, on the other hand, will be primarily focused on defense. However, they have two genuine opportunities to flip a seat. Georgia Senator Jon Ossoff is up for re-election and could be vulnerable after a narrow victory six years ago. Michigan is a tantalizing target as well, especially after Senator Gary Peters announced his retirement.

After you’ve checked out our National Senate Forecast, be sure to explore the latest Senate polls, and our full-page Senate forecasts for these races: Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina and Texas. You can also follow the latest polling across the entire site, or focus on the 2028 Democratic and Republican presidential primaries. Finally, we’re running a House Forecast, and predicting every governor race up in 2026.

Update on April 17th: All Senate candidates have now publicly revealed how much money they raised through April 1st, and that data has been added to the forecast. This provides a valuable early signal of which candidates are running strong campaigns and will have the resources to get their message out. The new fundraising data has improved Democrats’ odds of winning the majority. In particular, Democrats gained a major advantage in Alaska, Georgia, and New Hampshire. Their odds also improved slightly in North Carolina and Texas as well. Republicans also gained ground in Florida, Kansas, Michigan, and Montana.