2026 Arizona Governor Predictions and Polling

The 2026 Arizona Governor Forecast uses a data-driven model that incorporates polling, historical trends, candidate quality, and fundraising, and is updated daily with the latest information. We also track the polling in the race, including head-to-head matchups and each candidate’s favorable/unfavorable ratings.

In 2022, Katie Hobbs narrowly vanquished political firebrand Kari Lake in one of the most closely watched elections of the cycle, becoming the first Democrat since 2006 to become Governor of the Grand Canyon State. As Hobbs runs for re-election, Arizona has emerged as one of the GOP’s top targets in 2026. Encouraged by President Trump’s net 5.5% lead in the state in 2024, and Hobbs’s narrow 0.67% lead over Lake in 2022, three prominent Republicans are vying for the right to take on Hobbs in the general election: Attorney Karrin Taylor Robson, who finished second behind Lake in the 2022 GOP Governor primary; far-right Congressman Andy Biggs; and Congressman David Schweikert from Maricopa County.

After exploring the Arizona Governor Race, you can see our predictions for all Senate, House, and Governor Races. You can also follow the latest polling for the 2028 Democratic and Republican presidential primaries. For questions or press inquires, send an email to the RacetotheWH founder Logan Phillips at racetothewh@gmail.com.