2026 Texas Senate Predictions and Polling
Track the latest polling for the 2026 Texas Senate primaries and explore our live, interactive predictions for the general election, powered by a data-driven model that incorporates polling, historical trends, candidate quality, and fundraising. The forecast is updated daily with the latest information.
In the Democratic primary, State Representative James Talarico is running against Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett. The Republican primary features a three-way matchup between incumbent Senator John Cornyn, Attorney General Ken Paxton, and Congressman Wesley Hunt. For both primaries, the leading candidate must win at least 50% of the vote on March 3 to avoid a runoff; otherwise, they will face the second-place finisher in a May 26 runoff election.
After exploring the Texas Senate Race, you can see our predictions for all Senate, House, and Governor Races. You can also follow the latest polling for the 2028 Democratic and Republican presidential primaries, or explore the latest polling across the entire site. For questions or press inquires, send an email to the RacetotheWH founder Logan Phillips at racetothewh@gmail.com.
Track the latest predictions for the 2026 Senate Race, including an interactive map, and detailed predictions for each state.
2026 Senate Forecast
Other Interactive Features
Explore our Senate Forecast, which predicts every race, and Democrats chance to secure the Majority.
The House Forecast uses data-driven projections to forecast all 435 races and projects each party’s chance of winning the Majority.
Explore our predictions for every Governor race in 2026 - from Arizona and Georgia to Michigan and Wisconsin.
Track the latest Presidential Primary Polling - both nationally and across every state.