The 2025-2026 Governor Forecast

Democrats’ first and best opportunity to flip a Governorship is the light blue state of Virginia, which holds an election in 2025. Virginia is the only state in the nation that prevents Governors from running for re-election in consecutive terms, which means Democrats won’t have to beat Governor Glenn Youngkin to win - instead, they’ll be running against his Lieutennent Governor, Winsome Sears (R). Democrats nominated Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger (D), who has a proven record of winning tough elections. The early polling suggest Spanberger is the favorite.

In 2026, there are many seats that Democrats have a real shot at flipping, but there’s no state like Virginia where they begin as the strong favorite to win. Arguably, their best bet is Georgia, a highly competitive swing state that still slightly favors Republicans, but which could be fertile ground in a midterm favoring Democrats.

They also will be competitive in New Hampshire and Nevada. While Democrats have frequently proven they can win both states, they’ll have to oust a sitting Governor to win, and both NH Governor Kelly Ayotte and NV Govenor Joe Lombardo have strong approval ratings to start the cycle.

Finally, Democrats have opportunities to expand the map beyond the more traditional swing states, especially if they win the midterms on the backs of a big blue wave. Beyond that, candidate quality means far more in Governor races then Senate and House races. Democrats are primed to compete in Iowa now that popular Iowa State Auditor Rob Sand is running. At the stat of the race, Sand enters the race broadly popular among Democrats, Independents, and a surprisingly high number of Republicans. Democrats could also be competitive in Alaska and Ohio if Congresswoman Mary Peltola or Senator Sherrod Brown decides to run.

While Democrats seek to flip Virginia in 2025, Republicans will do their best to flip the New Jersey governorship, which will be open as Governor Phil Murphy (D) is term-limited. Some Republicans are hopeful they can win an upset victory in the Garden state, after Jack Ciattarelli (R) lost by only 3.2% in 2021, and after Donald Trump lost New Jersey by just 6% in 2024. Ciattarelli will be their nominee once again in 2025.

However, he will begin the race as the underdog. If Republicans lose New Jersey in a year where they win the popular vote, it’s going to be even harder to win it with a Republican in the White House, which typically mobilizes the other party to turn out at a higher rate. Ciattarelli also faces a tough opponent in the battletested Congresswoman Mikie Sherill, a former Navy Helicopter Pilot who successfully ousted an incumbent to win her seat in 2018.

In 2026, Republicans have more ripe targets. First on the list is Kansas, a Republican leaning-state. Popular Democratic Governor Laura Kelly won impressive back to back victories. Even though Democrats have have been making progress in Kansas in recent elections, the state still clearly favors Republicans, and Democrats would need an outstanding performance to win the governorship for the third straight time.

Republicans also feel optimistic about their chances of winning Michigan. On paper, this is a state that would most likely support Democrats in a blue midterm, especially as they are likely to nominate Democratic Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson, who is one of the state party’s most talented politicians. However, the GOP could benefit from Democratic Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan’s surprising decision to run as an independent. Early polls show he is taking from both parties, but his natural base of support is Detroit, a city that has far more Democrats than Republicans.

Republicans will also seek to flip Arizona and Wisconsin. In 2024, Arizona was the most Republican friendly swing state, but the party could accidentally sabotage their chances of winning the state. Congressman Andy Biggs is leading the early primary polling, and while he can electrify primary voters, he’s taken many far right positions that could easily turn off independent voters as his record comes under heavy attack in the general election.

Finally, the GOP hopes to be competitive in Maine and New Mexico, both of which feature term-limited Governors, although those are harder states to flip.

Keep in mind that in Governor races, the partisan bent of a state means half as much as it does for Senate or Presidential races. Be prepared for the forecast to show competitive races in states that are not competitive in other types of elections. This is nothing new - as we’ve seen Republicans win states in deep blue states like Massachusetts and Vermont, and Democrats pull of wins in ruby red states like Kentucky and Louisiana.