The 2025-2026 Governor Forecast

Democrats already flipped their first governor’s mansion of the cycle in 2025, when Democrat Abigail Spanberger won Virginia. In 2026, there are several states where Democrats have a real shot at flipping the governorship, although all of them are likely to be more challenging than Virginia.

Arguably, the most promising target is Georgia, where Governor Brian Kemp is term-limited. While Donald Trump narrowly won the state in 2024, it has been rapidly moving toward Democrats over the last decade. In 2025, Democrats won their first non-federal statewide election since 2006, sweeping two Public Service Commission seats in a landslide and winning both by over 25%.

They should also be competitive in New Hampshire and Nevada. While Democrats have frequently proven they can win both states, they will have to oust sitting governors, and both New Hampshire Governor Kelly Ayotte and Nevada Governor Joe Lombardo have strong approval ratings to start the cycle.

Democrats could also expand the map beyond the usual swing states, especially if they win the midterms on the back of a big blue wave. One race to watch closely is Iowa. The state has been hit particularly hard by tariffs, so much so that its economy shrank outright at the start of 2025. In a potential warning sign for Republicans, both Senator Joni Ernst and Governor Kim Reynolds opted not to run for re-election. In the governor race, Democrats have a strong recruit in Iowa State Auditor Rob Sand, who has surprisingly strong approval ratings among Independents and Republicans.

In 2026, Republicans have a ripe target to flip in Kansas, even in a strong Democratic midterm. Popular Democratic Governor Laura Kelly won impressive back-to-back victories in 2018 and 2022. Even though Democrats have been making progress in Kansas in recent elections, the state still clearly favors Republicans, and Democrats would need an outstanding performance to win the governorship for a third straight term.

Republicans also feel optimistic about their chances in Michigan. On paper, this is a state that would likely support Democrats in a blue midterm, especially if they nominate Democratic Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson, who is one of the state party’s most talented politicians. However, the GOP could benefit from Democratic Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan’s surprising decision to run as an independent. Early polls show he is pulling support from both parties, but his natural base is Detroit, a city with far more Democrats than Republicans.

Republicans will also seek to flip Arizona and Wisconsin. In 2024, Arizona was the most Republican-friendly swing state, but the party could end up sabotaging its chances. Congressman Andy Biggs is leading the early primary polling, and while he can electrify primary voters, he has taken many far-right positions that could turn off independent voters as his record comes under heavy attack in the general election.

Finally, the GOP hopes to be competitive in Maine and New Mexico, both of which feature term-limited governors, although those are harder states to flip.

Keep in mind that in Governor races, the partisan bent of a state means half as much as it does for Senate or Presidential races. Be prepared for the forecast to show competitive races in states that are not competitive in other types of elections. This is nothing new - as we’ve seen Republicans win states in deep blue states like Massachusetts and Vermont, and Democrats pull of wins in ruby red states like Kentucky and Louisiana.