2026 North Carolina Senate Predictions and Polling

The 2026 North Carolina Senate Forecast uses a data-driven model that incorporates polling, historical trends, candidate quality, and fundraising, and is updated daily with the latest information. We also track the polling in the race, including head-to-head matchups and each candidate’s favorable/unfavorable ratings.

North Carolina Senator Thom Tillis is retiring, leaving an open seat that is arguably Democrats’ best opportunity to flip in the 2026 midterm elections. While Republicans have won North Carolina in every presidential election but one since 2000, Democrats have narrowed the GOP’s edge in the state, and it voted just 1.7% more Republican than the national popular vote in 2024. The state is now competitive enough for Democrats to win with the right candidates and the right political climate.

The Democratic nominee will be Roy Cooper, a proven winner who has successfully won win six statewide elections as Governor and Attorney General, five of which came in years where the Republican Presidential nominee won the state. He’ll be facing Republican Michael Whatley, personally recruited by President Donald Trump. Whatley has never run for office before, but he’s no stranger to politics, as he successfully ran the Republican National Committee during the 2024 presidential election.

After exploring the North Carolina Senate Race, you can see our predictions for all Senate, House, and Governor Races. You can also follow the latest polling for the 2028 Democratic and Republican presidential primaries. For questions or press inquires, send an email to the RacetotheWH founder Logan Phillips at racetothewh@gmail.com.