Michigan 2026 Senate Race Predictions and Polling

The 2026 Michigan Senate Forecast uses a data-driven model that incorporates polling, historical trends, candidate quality, and fundraising, and is updated daily with the latest information. We also track the polling in the race, including head-to-head matchups, primary polling and each candidate’s favorable/unfavorable ratings.

Congressman Mike Rogers is the decisive favorite to win the Republican nomination, just two years after he narrowly lost the 2024 Senate Race to then-Congresswoman Elissa Slotkin by just 0.34%. The Democratic primary is far more competitive, and features a fiercely contested 3-way battle between Michigan State Senator Mallory McMorrow, Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed, and Congresswoman Haley Stevens. The primary will be held on August 4th.

After exploring the Michigan Senate Race, you can see our predictions for all Senate, House, and Governor Races. You can also follow the latest polling for the 2028 Democratic and Republican presidential primaries, or explore the latest polling across the entire site. For questions or press inquires, send an email to the RacetotheWH founder Logan Phillips at racetothewh@gmail.com.