California GOP Primary - 2024 Presidential Election
RacetotheWH Forecast & Interactives:
With the largest population of any state in the Union, the Golden State and its 169 delegates could easily decide the nomination in a close national race. If the leading candidate in California can breach 50% support, then they will capture all of the state's delegates. California alone could provide more than 10% of the total number of delegates (1234) a candidate needs to secure the nomination.
Early polling indicates that GOP voters in California are a bit more skeptical of handing Trump another nomination than most states. That makes it an essential state to win for any challenger. The race will be on for a challenger to consolidate enough support before Super Tuesday to reach a majority, which will be held shortly after the first four states.
At RacetotheWH, we are tracking the latest polling for the CA Primary - including second-choice polling. We also forecast how many delegates candidates would win based on the current polling if the election were tomorrow. If there hasn’t been a new poll for several months, we adjust the state polling for changes in the national environment.
In 2022, RacetotheWH called the highest percentage of Senate and Governor races correctly of any forecaster and came within one seat of perfectly predicting the GOP’s final number of seats in the House. This election cycle, we have launched our polling for the national GOP Primary, and Presidential General Election Polling.