The 2024 Senate Forecast
Democrats slightly expanded their Senate Majority to 51 seats in 2022, but they will face a staunch challenge from the Republican party as they strive to keep their majority for a third straight term.
If they retain the White House, Democrats can afford to lose one seat given the Vice President’s tie-breaking vote in the case of a 50-50 split. If a Republican becomes President, they need to keep them all. Democrats will be defending seats in red states like Montana, Ohio, and West Virginia - while holding off challengers in Arizona, Nevada, Michigan, and Wisconsin. They have limited offensive opportunities this cycle, but their juiciest target is Senator Ted Cruz of Texas, who narrowly won in 2018.
RacetotheWH launched in 2020 and correctly anticipated that Democrats would win both the Senate and White House as early as May. In 2022, we came just one seat shy in both the Senate and the House of perfectly predicting both party's seat total - which was closer than any election forecaster that cycle. The 2024 Senate Forecast uses a sophisticated model that includes polling, historic trends, and fundraising to create its projections. Every day, it simulates the election 50,000 times a day.