The 2024 Senate Forecast
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Democrats slightly expanded their Senate Majority to 51 seats in 2022, but they will face a staunch challenge from the Republican party as they strive to keep their majority for a third straight term.
If they retain the White House, Democrats can afford to lose one seat given the Vice President’s tie-breaking vote in the case of a 50-50 split. If a Republican becomes President, they need to keep them all. Democrats will be defending seats in red states like Montana, Ohio, and West Virginia - while holding off challengers in Arizona, Nevada, Michigan, and Wisconsin. They have limited offensive opportunities this cycle, but their juiciest target is Senator Ted Cruz of Texas, who narrowly won in 2018.
RacetotheWH launched in 2020 and correctly anticipated that Democrats would win both the Senate and White House as early as May. In 2022, we came just one seat shy in both the Senate and the House of perfectly predicting both party's seat total - which was closer than any election forecaster that cycle. The 2024 Senate Forecast uses a sophisticated model that includes polling, historic trends, and fundraising to create its projections. Every day, it simulates the election 50,000 times a day.
2024 Senate Polling
The latest polling for every Senate race up in 2024. This year, we are also tracking primary polls and favorability polls for every candidate
2024 Presidential Election
Unique to RacetotheWH - we have launched our Presidential Election Polling Average, including a new electoral college map for every matchup that has polling. Updated daily.
Other RacetothewH Forecast
24 Presidential Polling
Track the latest general election polling, featuring Biden v. Trump and DeSantis polling, and an early look at the electoral college.
Can Democrats Beat Ted Cruz in Texas?
Six years after a surprisingly close election against Beto O’Rourke, Ted Cruz is running for re-election. Rising Democratic star and former NFL player Colin Allred will seek to vanquish Cruz in 2024.
Montana Senate Predictions
The Senate Majority could be decided by Montanans, who will choose whether to send Jon Tester, the Senator-Rancher, back to Washington DC for another term. It’s the focus of our first full-page individualized interactive Senate Forecast.
GOP Primary Polling
We’re tracking the latest GOP primary polls in ever state - including polls showing Trump v. DeSantis head to head.
Biden Approval Tracker
Track Biden’s support in every state of the union, and compare his national numbers to Donald Trump’s.
Senate Polling
We’re tracking the latest polling for the 2024 Senate Race, now including primary poll and favorability ratings.
Kentucky Governor Predictions
In 2019, Democrat Andy Beshear defied political gravity and won deep red Kentucky by 0.4%. Can he do it again in 2023?
