Wisconsin Senate Race Predictions and Polls

The Wisconsin Senate Forecast predicts the outcome of the election using a data-driven model that factors in polling, historic trends, candidate quality, and fundraising. Almost everything on the page is interactive and shows how the projection changes depending on which candidates make it to the general election.

Background on the Race:

Few states in America have been more willing to vote for both parties than the Badger state. Just four years after narrowly voting for Donald Trump by a net 0.8%, Wisconsin voted for Joe Biden by 0.6% in 2020. It voted for Democrats and Republicans twice each in the last four governor races, and it’s just one of five states in the nation to have senators aligned with different parties.

That makes Wisconsin a natural target for the GOP in 2024. The challenge for Republicans is that they’ll have to beat Tammy Baldwin, a genuine political heavy weight that has two impressive wins on her resume. In her first run for the Senate in 2012, she defeated the popular four-term Governor Tommy Thompson in an open race by 5.6%. Six years later, she won re-election by almost 11% - by far the biggest margin of any senator, governor, or presidential candidate since 2008.