Simulate the 2024 Senate Election

Our Senate Simulator creates three new simulations of the Senate election for you to explore every day. Simply press the orange play button and watch as races are called in each part of the country as polls begin to close. This feature is powered by the RacetotheWH Senate Forecast, and updates every morning.

This is not an actual forecast of the election - instead, we upload three simulations every day from our Senate forecast. The actual Senate Forecast runs through 50,000 of these simulations each day to assess each party’s chance of securing a majority. In each one of these simulations, parties will exceed/underperform expectations in their support with key demographic groups, and in different regions across the country. That will affect their performance in each Senate race.

Keep in mind that you may sometimes see a surprising result here where one party radically outperforms expectations. This is not a sign of a broken forecast, as these outcomes are within the range of possibilities, even though they may be very unlikely. This is meant to be a fun way to glance at what election day could look like - but remember that each individual simulation has only limited predictive value on their own. For a formal projection on how likely each party is to capture the Senate Majority and to win each seat, visit our Senate Forecast here.

Our simulations utilize the projections made in the Senate Forecast, specifically the projected margin of victory in every race, and the chance both parties have of winning. Each sim uses randomly generated numbers to create a different outcome. The difference between the projected result and the simulation is also affected by how much uncertainty we have in each election. For example, uncertainty is higher when we are further away from election day, and when there have been few polls published.
We don’t treat each race as a separate entity. Democrats or Republicans are likely to overperform expectations nationwide, and we also run through their performance with different demographic groups, including, for example, race and education. If a party exceeds projections in Pennsylvania, there's a good chance they will do the same in a similar state like Ohio. Like in real life, sometimes a surprise scandal happens or a candidate runs a stunningly strong campaign and greatly outperforms expectations.
Keep in mind that sometimes the results will be a little bit wacky - especially when we have a long time until election day. This isn’t a sign of a broken forecast, as these outcomes are within the range of possibilities, even though they are unlikely. From time to time, a party can win an unexpected landslide election, like when FDR’s party picked up ten additional Senate seats despite facing a midterm election.