Ohio Senate Predictions & Polls

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For over a century in American politics, Ohio reigned as the pre-eminent bellwether state. Since 1896, the party that won Ohio won the White House in all but three election cycles. Those days appear long gone at least for the foreseeable future, as the state has lurched to the right since President Obama won it in 2012. It voted for Donald Trump by 8% even as Joe Biden claimed the Presidency with just over 300 electoral votes.

The 2024 election gives Ohio another chance to play its historic role of being the deciding factor determining the direction of the nation, but this time around it will be for the Senate. Senator Sherrod Brown – known just as much for his grizzled voice as his laser focus on blue-collar workers and “the dignity of work” - is running for re-election.

He’s now become something of a survivor in a state that no longer votes for Democrats statewide. Along with President Obama, Brown is the only major Democrat to win a statewide election since 2010. Brown has thrived on his ability to win cross-party support. The central question is whether Republican-leaning voters who like Brown personally will once again cast a vote in his favor, or will they vote for the national party they prefer?

Our Senate Forecast predicts Brown’s chances of securing another victory in Ohio - including against each of the most viable candidates that could challenge him in the general election. Every day, it's updated with the latest information. Once the race for the nomination heats up, we will be adding an Ohio GOP Primary Forecast as well. In 2022, RacetotheWH correctly called more Senate races than any other forecaster and came within one seat of perfectly predicting the final balance in the House of Representatives.


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