For years, Democrats have dreamed of winning Texas, and they came to the brink of making history in the 2018 Senate election. Congressman Beto O'Rourke took on what appeared to be an unwinnable race after Cruz won his last election by 15.6% - and held Cruz to just a 2.6% victory.
Republicans have won every single statewide election in Texas since 1994, but Beto’s close defeat has Democrats hopeful about their chances of breaking through. Thanks to a historically challenging Senate map, Texas likely provides Democrats with their best at playing offense this cycle, and they’ve got one of their best recruits this cycle to lead the way. That’s Congressman Colin Allred, the frontrunner for the nomination. Allred is a former football star and civil rights lawyer. He's proved that he can win tough races by besting GOP Congressman Pete Sessions in the Dallas suburbs back in 2018. However, Allred will first have to win the Democratic nomination. The two most prominent challengers are former Midland City Councilmember John Love and - potentially - state senator Roland Gutierrez.
The Texas Senate Forecast predicts the election using data like the latest polling and fundraising. It’s updated daily and uses the same model that helped us become the most accurate Senate forecast in the nation in 2022.