California Recall Election

Forecast & Polls

Click here for the 2022 Senate Forecast

RacetotheWH Forecast & Interactives

Post-Election Recap - > How Gavin Newsom Got His Groove Back

California Governor Gavin Newsom didn't expect to be running for re-election in 2021, but now he'll have to overcome just the fourth recall election in history to finish out his term. Two of the other three governors facing a recall were prematurely knocked out of office, including California's own Gray Davis just 17 years ago.

If Gavin Newsom wins, he'll finish his term and have to run again in 2022. If he loses, the second question on the ballot becomes pivotal - voters will choose a candidate to replace him, and whoever wins the most votes would become Governor.

The Forecast is a combination of polling, California’s political lean, approval ratings, and Newsom’s performance in the 2018 election. It’s updated after every new poll.
Make sure to check out the Senate Forecast for 2022. In 2020, RacetotheWH was one of the nation’s most accurate forecasters in the nation, and was closer to the final margin on average than 538.
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RacetotheWH is already forecasting the entire 2021-2022 Gubernation Cycle. Click here for the national picture.


Senate Forecast

Predictions for the 2022 Senate Election, by one of the nation’s best forecasters. Updated after every poll.