The Governor Forecast

Full List of Governor Polls

Forecast Created by Logan Phillips

RacetotheWH Forecast & Interactives:

Over the next two years, almost forty states will host governor elections, each with the potential to reshape the direction state governments take across the nation. Partisanship plays an important role, but unlike federal elections for the Senate or White House, voters are often willing to consider the individual and buck their traditionally preferred party. That’s why there are for more elections in play, with Republicans entering the race as favorites to once again win power in states like Vermont, while Democrats have a shot of winning another four years in Kansas. 

RacetotheWH features a Georgia Forecast tracking Stacey Abrams second try for the Governorship, a Florida forecast following Ron DeSantis’s bid for re-election in 2022, the open Arizona Race, and Gretchen Whitmer’s run for re-election in Michigan. We also are tracking the Governor Primaries.

During our launch year in 2020, we correctly anticipated Biden’s narrow victory in Arizona and Georgia by June, called Democrat’s double victory to take the Senate in the Georgia January Runoff, and more closely predicted the margin in each state on average than the traditional gold standard, Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight. For reference, you can review our 2020 Presidential and Senate Predictions here.


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