Georgia Senate Runoff Forecast & Polls
Just under two years ago, Democrats stunned the nation when they pulled off a double victory in the Peach State to secure a Senate majority. Thanks to their strong midterm performance, the Senate majority has already been settled, but Democratic Senator Raphael Warnock will need to win again to earn a full six-year term. He narrowly outran Republican Herschel Walker on election day but fell just short of winning the 50% he needed to avoid a runoff.
This election remains highly consequential, and not just for the good people of Georgia. In 2024, Democrats will be on the defensive, defending seats in red states like Montana, Ohio, and West Virginia. Their pathway to victory is considerably broader if they enter the cycle with 51 seats, instead of 50.
Our Georgia Senate Runoff forecast calculates the odds of both candidates winning, using factors like the candidate’s performance in the first round, the latest polling, and Georgia’s partisan lean to make the most accurate prediction possible. Our forecast was easily one of the best in the nation in 2022, correctly predicting the results of over 96% of elections.