Georgia Senate Runoff Forecast & Polls

Just under two years ago, Democrats stunned the nation when they pulled off a double victory in the Peach State to secure a Senate majority. Thanks to their strong midterm performance, the Senate majority has already been settled, but Democratic Senator Raphael Warnock will need to win again to earn a full six-year term. He narrowly outran Republican Herschel Walker on election day but fell just short of winning the 50% he needed to avoid a runoff.

This election remains highly consequential, and not just for the good people of Georgia. In 2024, Democrats will be on the defensive, defending seats in red states like Montana, Ohio, and West Virginia. Their pathway to victory is considerably broader if they enter the cycle with 51 seats, instead of 50.

Our Georgia Senate Runoff forecast calculates the odds of both candidates winning, using factors like the candidate’s performance in the first round, the latest polling, and Georgia’s partisan lean to make the most accurate prediction possible. Our forecast was easily one of the best in the nation in 2022, correctly predicting the results of over 96% of elections.

RacetotheWH is now tracking polling for the 2024 Republican and Democratic Presidential Primaries. We've done our best work when tracking and forecasting primaries - we called every single one of the twenty senate primaries we forecasted correctly in 2022. 

Senate Forecast

Predictions for the 2022 Senate Election, by one of the nation’s best forecasters. Updated after every poll.

 

2024 Dem Primary Polls

Joe Biden has broken ahead in the 2024 Dem polling, which we are tracking in every state. If he doesn’t run, polls show Harris and Buttigieg would be the top contenders out of the gate.

2024 Primary Polling

All indications are that the 2024 GOP primary will feature a matchup between Ron DeSantis and Donald Trump - and DeSantis is surging in the polls after the 2022 election.

Joe Biden Approval Rating Tracker

Track Biden’s approval rating - including a map showing his support in every state. Updated daily.

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Predictions for the House - Georgia Edition