Iowa 2024 GOP Primary Polling & Predictions

Looking for the Primary Polls? Click here 

The 2024 GOP Primary starts with the Iowa Caucus - which serves the critically important role of consolidating the field. In most recent primaries, the winner of the Iowa Caucus became one of the top contenders for the nomination - even when they were polling in the single digits just weeks earlier.

On this page, we use the current polling to predict the results of the Iowa election if it were to be held tomorrow. This is more of a “Now-Cast” than a forecast. Primary elections in Iowa are fluid and ever-changing, so expect these numbers to change frequently. 

We also project the number of delegates each candidate would win. This is critically important in other states - because the nomination isn’t won by the candidate that gets the most votes but instead by the candidate that wins the most delegates. However, in Iowa, the storylines are a bit more important. A surprise second-place finishing can provide rocket power to a flagging campaign and instantly make them a top contender. 

Finally, we’ve included a few key signals here that could provide early indicators of which candidates are best positioned to rise. Keep a close eye on which candidates voters say are their second choice, who has strong favorable/unfavorable ratings with voters, and how each candidate is performing with key demographic groups.

In 2022, RacetotheWH was one of the most accurate forecasters in the nation. We came the closest to predicting the GOP’s final # of seats in both the House and Senate -and we’re already forecasting the 24 Senate Election. 

2024 Presidential Election

Unique to RacetotheWH - we have launched our Presidential Election Polling Average, including a new electoral college map for every matchup that has polling. Updated daily.

2024 Senate Forecast

Our new Senate Forecast breaks down the chances both parties have of securing a majority in 2024. It will be updated daily from now until the election, and includes predictions for every Senate race up in 2024


Other RacetothewH Forecast

24 Presidential Polling

Track the latest general election polling, featuring Biden v. Trump and DeSantis polling, and an early look at the electoral college.

Click here for the latest polling

GOP Primary Polling

We’re tracking the latest GOP primary polls in ever state - including polls showing Trump v. DeSantis head to head.

Click here for GOP Primary Polling

Montana Senate Predictions

The Senate Majority could be decided by Montanans, who will choose whether to send Jon Tester, the Senator-Rancher, back to Washington DC for another term. It’s the focus of our first full-page individualized interactive Senate Forecast.

Predictions for Montana

Biden Approval Tracker

Track Biden’s support in every state of the union, and compare his national numbers to Donald Trump’s.

Biden Approval Rating Polls

Senate Polling

We’re tracking the latest polling for the 2024 Senate Race, now including primary poll and favorability ratings.

Latest Senate Polling

Kentucky Governor Predictions

In 2019, Democrat Andy Beshear defied political gravity and won deep red Kentucky by 0.4%. Can he do it again in 2023?

Kentucky Governor Predictions

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