New Hampshire 2024 GOP Primary Polling & Predictions

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Designed by Logan Phillips

The road to the 2024 nomination goes through the Granite State, which has successfully picked the future winner of the GOP nomination in every presidential election but two since 1972. The NH Primary Forecast is a "Now-Cast" - showing what would happen if the current polling accurately predicts the results of the election. Of course, we fully expect the race to change as time goes by, and it's updated daily with the latest polling.

The nomination isn't won by the candidate that gets the most votes - but instead by the candidate that wins the most delegates. For every state we forecast, we're showcasing how many delegates each candidate is on track to win. We're assuming states are going to use their 2020 primary rules until they finalize their rules for 2024.

We're committed to making the primary process clear and easy to understand, so we break down the unique delegate rules for each state, and show information like candidates' approval ratings, and their support with different demographic groups. While NH is our first interactive forecast for the 24 presidential primaries, we will soon be launching a national delegate forecast and additional feature pages for the most important early states.

In 2022, RacetotheWH was one of the most accurate forecasters in the nation. We came the closest to predicting the GOP’s final # of seats in both the House and Senate -and we’re already forecasting the 24 Senate Election.

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