Who is Running for President in the 2024 GOP Presidential Primary?

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We’re tracking which potential Republican presidential candidates are the most likely to actually launch a bid for the nomination. Each candidate receives a score from zero to one hundred, based on their performance on seven key indicators, which we’ve found to be highly predictive of a presidential run.

We arrived at these indicators after reviewing the last sixteen open presidential primaries and examining over 100 politicians who either opted to run or were considered potential contenders, but ultimately decided to pass on a bid. For much more information on each of the seven indicators, click the + sign below.

  • 1. Expressed Interest in Running (20 Points)

    We look for clear statements that show a candidate is considering a bid. If they frequently raise the possibility on their own, express confidence that a bid is likely, or an announcement appears to be coming in the next few weeks, they earn 20 points.

    Candidates that have made it clear they are at least openly considering running receive 10 points. If they have gone on record refusing to rule out a bid, or have intentionally side-stepped any questions about their intentions, like Ron DeSantis, they get 5 points.

    2. Have They Visited the Early States? (20 Points)

    Politicians that have visited all four of the early primary states are likely mulling a run. We track which candidates are visiting the early states. 5 Points Per State (IA, NH, NV and SC)

    3. Current Primary Polling (18 Points)

    Candidates that have successfully created enough hype to be regularly included in polls are much more likely to run - even those that are polling low. Our study of over 140 candidates in every primary without an incumbent President since 1976 found that early in every primary since 1976 found that 61% of candidates even semi-regularly included in polling before the start of the primary decision to run.

    Surprisingly, the odds of them running only increase modestly the higher their polling is. Over 50% of candidates polling between 0-1% still decided to run. Once a candidate has at least 20% support, their odds of running spike to 75%.

    That's why we still give 8/18 points to those that are regularly included in polling even if they have very little support. That goes up to 18 points if they poll above 20%.

    4. Running Facebook Ads (18 Points)

    There are few things less subtle than a politician from the other side of the country running ads targeting Iowa voters on Facebook with ads. FB ads are much cheaper than TV ads, and we've seen several potential 2024 candidates liberally on Facebook to target voters in the 4 early states without formally launching a bid.

    They get 4 points for each state, and an additional 2 points if they are running ads aimed at a national audience

    5. PAC or SuperPAC Supporting a 24 Run (12 Points)

    It takes a lot of money to run a presidential campaign, and while it may not be ideal for a well-functioning Democratic Republic, there's very little regulation of PACs and SuperPACs, which enable them to raise huge sums of money. That makes them an invaluable asset. We give 10 points if candidates or their allies have formed a PAC or SuperPAC that is proactively promoting a candidate, whether that's running ads or helping them build a campaign operation before a formal launch.

    6. New Book Since June (6 Points)

    Most politicians preparing to run for President release a book soon before they announce their bid.

    7. Spoke at Key Events (6 Points)

    We track which politicians have been speaking at events that give them great opportunities to meet with activists, donors, or political operatives that they would like to recruit to their campaign. The list of events will expand in the weeks and months to come.

In 2022, RacetotheWH was one of the most accurate forecasters in the nation. We predicted the GOP would win 223 seats in the House. They won 222. This cycle, we’re already forecasting the 24 Senate Election.

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