What Would Happen to the Electoral Map if Biden or Trump Gains in the Polling?

Explore how the election would change if either Joe Biden or Donald Trump were to gain a certain percentage across the board in all fifty states. In a Presidential election, we frequently see big swings in the polling throughout the Presidential election, and this interactive feature will show how a surge could change the shape of the electoral map. It also reveals how the map would look if Biden/Trump ends up being systematically underrated in the polling average.

This feature uses the RacetotheWH 2024 Presidential Polling Average for its baseline, which is updated every day with the latest polls.

Of course - this feature has some limitations. First, even during a surge, Presidential candidates will almost certainly make greater gains in some states than others. It wouldn’t be surprising if Joe Biden gains in most of the Midwestern states while Donald Trump gains in the Southwestern states - or vice versa. Second, the Presidential candidates will spend most of their resources trying to win voters over in the top seven swing states - AZ, GA, MI, NV, NC, PA, and WI. If their message is connecting with voters, they may gain in those states even as their national polls stay roughly steady.

Nonetheless, this is still a useful tool to see how far away the candidate currently trailing in the polls is from taking the lead in the electoral college. It also lets you see what it would roughly take for a candidate to flip one of their stretch targets - like Texas for Biden, or Virginia for Trump.