In 2022, Karen Bass won a hard-fought victory over billionaire developer Rick Caruso, becoming the first woman elected mayor of Los Angeles. Now Mayor Bass is running for a second term in a volatile political environment, with voters still deeply concerned about homelessness, housing affordability, public safety, and the city’s response to the 2025 Palisades fire.

Her leading challengers are City Councilmember Nithya Raman, reality television personality and wildfire critic Spencer Pratt, tech executive Adam Miller, and housing advocate Rae Huang. Raman is running on making Los Angeles more affordable and making city government work more effectively. Pratt, who lost his home in the Palisades fire, has built his campaign around the city’s response to the wildfire, promising to improve the city’s response to future crises and empower first responders. Miller is pitching himself as a business-minded outsider focused on housing and public safety, arguing he can use technology to make city government faster and more responsive. Huang is running as a left-wing housing advocate focused on social housing, tenant protections, and economic justice.

Karen Bass led all three polls released when we launched the polling average in late April. She is fairly well-positioned to make the second round of the election, but she is in serious danger of losing in November. Angelenos are still angry about her handling of the devastating Palisades fire, and her approval rating has never recovered.

Mayor Bass will hope the months before a potential November runoff give her enough time to convince Angelenos that her record is stronger than it gets credit for. She is arguing that while the city still has a lot of work to do, Los Angeles is at a turning point under her leadership, with homelessness finally starting to decline and homicides falling to their lowest level in nearly 60 years. Against the right opponent, she would likely enter the November election as the underdog despite her incumbent status. If she remains unpopular, her best chance might be against Spencer Pratt. While Pratt has tried to run a nonpartisan campaign, he is a registered Republican in a deep-blue city, where Republicans have failed to capture even one of Los Angeles’ 15 city council seats.