Ohio Senate Forecast & Polls

RacetotheWH Forecast & Interactives

Democrats are hoping to break through in the Buckeye State after popular Republican incumbent Senator Rob Portman decided to retire, leaving an open seat in what was once one of the nation’s most competitive swing states. Ohio has drifted right in recent years, but Democrats are feeling hopeful about their chances of overperforming after one of their best recruits of the cycle, Tim Ryan, decided to run. On the Republican side, political pundit and venture capitalist JD Vance secured the nomination after mounting a successful come-from-behind victory to surge from third to first place in the closing weeks of the race. 

The Ohio General Election Forecast breaks down the Senate race, showcasing the latest polling and approval ratings. It includes interactive maps, analysis, and projections for the result of the race. In 2020, RacetotheWH was one of the nation’s most accurate forecasters. We also successfully called the primary results in Ohio, including the exact order that each candidate would finish in for the Republican primary. Across both parties, our projections were off by just 2.1%. 

RacetotheWH is already forecasting the entire 2021-2022 Gubernation Cycle. Click here for the national picture.

Senate Forecast

Predictions for the 2022 Senate Election, by one of the nation’s best forecasters. Updated after every poll.


At long last, it’s Election Day in Ohio. Will JD Vance Win the Senate Nomination?