2025 New Jersey Governor Predictions
and Polling

The 2025 New Jersey Governor Forecast predicts the outcome of the election using a data-driven model that factors in polling, historical trends, candidate quality, and fundraising. Almost everything on the page is interactive, and it’s updated daily with the latest information. We also track the latest polling in the race, including both head-to-head polling and each candidate’s favorability and unfavourability ratings.

Just four years ago, Republican Jack Ciattarelli almost won a stunning upset over Governor Phil Murphy, losing by just 3.22% despite running in a blue state. New Jersey has a long history of voting against the party in power in the White House, most recently voting for Republican Chris Christie twice even as President Obama won the state by double digits. That likely played a role in Ciattarelli’s strong showing in 2021 when Joe Biden was President, but those very same headwinds may work against him now that Donald Trump is President. Ciattarelli faces Democratic Congresswoman Mikie Sherrill, who proved to also be a strong candidate when she flipped a long-held Republican seat in 2018, winning the race by almost 15%.

After exploring the New Jersey Governor Race, you can see the other major 2025 races in the Virginia Governor Forecast and the NYC Mayor Polling Average. You can also follow our Senate Forecast, and the latest polling for the 2028 Democratic and Republican presidential primaries.

For questions or press inquires, send an email to the RacetotheWH founder Logan Phillips at racetothewh@gmail.com.