More Republicans Could End up Supporting Impeachment
Photo Credit: Gage Skidmore from Peoria, AZ,
By: Logan Phillips
Date: 2/9
On the first day of the impeachment trial, the consensus on both sides of the aisle is that Democratic Congressman Jamie Raskin and the prosecution made a compelling argument for the conviction of Donald Trump and the legality of the Senate impeachment trial. On the other hand, President Trump’s legal team widely miss the mark, both in comparison to Raskin and in comparison to the team representing him just two years ago in his first impeachment. This is likely a direct result of the President bringing on a new legal team only a week before the trial began.
The day concluded with a vote on the legality of the trial. While many Republican Senators opined on the shortfallings of the President’s legal defense, only six voted that the trial was constitutional, for a total of fifty-six. On the first hand, this appears to be a damning sign for the prospects of conviction, given that it requires the support of sixty-seven Senators. While acquittal is clearly the most likely outcome, the door on conviction hasn’t been closed just yet.
Think about it this way. There's no point in going halfway on this. Voting in favor of the trial's constitutionality but in favor of clearing the President would still draw some serious heat from the party faithful and alone could result in a serious primary challenge. Any Republican Senator looking to even preserve the option of acquittal was probably going to vote no.
Perhaps this calculation seems too cynical, however, I’d remind you that any Republican Senator that votes for impeachment is taking a pretty remarkable political risk no matter what path they take to get there. This could easily cost them their jobs. No one voting for it is doing this in accord with their political incentives, but out of personal sacrifice for what they believe is for the greater good of their country.
Why the focus on the legality of conviction? It’s probably more about the politics than the law. Most, though not all, legal experts believe the trial is constitutional. A letter signed by over 150 legal scholars, including the co-founder of the very conservative and normally Pro-Trump Federalist Society argues that impeaching and convicting a President after their term has ended is constitutional.
However, on the very face of it, it makes inherent sense that it would be questionable to convict and remove someone from an office they no longer hold. Therefore, it gives an out to Republicans that are unwilling and unable to defend President Trump’s autocratic like efforts to overturn an election that caused the riot at the Capitol. They are wary of torpedoing their career and losing to a hyper-partisan Trump-loyalist in their next primary, which is a real risk.
The political danger of conviction for Republicans has always made it unlikely, but there are several reasons to believe it's still possible. First, there are more than the necessary 67 Senators that have made it clear they are at least open to conviction. There are 15 undecided Republican Senators according to our impeachment tracker. If 11 of them vote for conviction, along with all fifty Democrats and the six Republicans that voted in favor of the trial’s constitutionality, then the President would be convicted.
Second, there are many Republicans, including Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, that have made it abundantly clear that they are disgusted by the President's refusal to accept his loss, and believe his lies and fiery rhetoric put their lives and even American democracy at risk.
My best guess is that you'll see about 57-59 Senators vote for conviction. That would include every Democratic Senator, the six Republicans that voted in favor of the constitutionality of the trial, and an additional 2 or 3 of the 15 undecided Senators.
However, if there is clear and compelling evidence that former President Trump's actions during and preceding the attack were even worse than we currently know, then I think all bets are off the table. If Donald Trump is convicted, I expect the last ten or so votes to be announced all at once. These senators might be willing to take the political heat if only if the conviction is possible, but they don't want to be a martyr for a failed effort.
Throughout the Senate trial, we’ll track every Senator’s comments about the trial, and update the vote count right here at Race to the WH. While you are here, be sure to check out our projections for the 2022 Senate Election. In 2020, we were one of the nation’s most accurate election forecast and predicted Democrat’s narrow double victories in the Georgia Senate as early as September while almost every other forecast expected Warnock to lose to Kelly Loeffler.
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