RacetotheWH Forecast & Interactives:
Our Senate Forecast focuses on the big picture on a national level, and the chance both parties have of winning a majority in the 2022 midterm election. This page focuses on individual Senate races. First, it gives a race rating for each state, with nine categories between Safe Democrat and Safe Republican. Next, you can focus on any of the 34 individual Senate races, and see how high of a chance we think both parties have of winning. That includes the trend line over time. Finally, we show how the parties compare across eight different factors our forecast tracks, and how we use these factors to make an overall projection. We also explain what we’re looking for in each of these areas.
All of this is updated daily. Our goal is to go deeper in breaking down each race than anyone else, so if you want to see even more, don’t miss our full-page interactive forecast for each competitive Senate race. Find them either under the Senate tab at the top of the page, or a full list of races we feature at the bottom of the page. They include projections for every single viable general election matchup in each race, list all of the latest polling, and track how much money each campaigns has raised. We also offer our analysis of the race, and break down the political battleground in each state. If there’s any information we’ve missed that you’d like for us to track going forward, let us know at [email protected]
Among other races, we’ve launched full-page interactive features for Arizona, Georgia, Ohio, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. We also recently added our predictions for the House of Representatives!
RacetotheWH launched in 2020 and correctly anticipated that Democrats would win both the Senate and White House as early as May and that Biden would narrowly win Arizona and Georgia as early as June. On average, it was closer to the final result than the traditional gold standard, Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight.