RacetotheWH Forecast & Interactives:
The Democratic Party’s Senate Majority rest on a razor's edge, tied with Republicans with fifty seats apiece, with the tie broken by Vice President Kamala Harris. Republicans can capture the Senate if they seize just one seat without losing one of their own. They will be aggressively targeting Democratic Senator Raphael Warnock in Georgia, Mark Kelly in Arizona, Catherine Cortez Masto in Nevada, and Maggie Hassan in New Hampshire.
On the other hand, Democrats have several viable opportunities to expand their majority. Arguably, the single most competitive seat is in Pennsylvania, left open by retiring Republican Pat Toomey. They’ll also be targeting North Carolina and Ohio, which are also open seats. Democrats are feeling optimistic about Wisconsin, as a stacked field of experienced candidates have already launched their bid for the Democratic nomination to take on Senator Ron Johnson. Democrats also got a star recruit in Val Demings, although the state will be difficult to win given its recent rightward drift.
RacetotheWH launched in 2020 and correctly anticipated that Democrats would win both the Senate and White House as early as May, and that Biden would narrowly win Arizona and Georgia as early as June. On average, it was closer to the final result than the traditional gold standard, Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight. The 2022 Senate Forecast uses a sophisticated model that includes polling, historic trends, and fundraising to create its projections. Every update, it simulates the election 50,000 times.
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